Abstract:
This paper provides a macro-micro modeling analysis of the ex-ante effects of COVID-19 mitigation and recovery policies on macroeconomic and distributional effects, particularly on female and male workers, income distribution, and poverty in Zimbabwe. With an emphasis on modeling gender-disaggregated labor markets and COVID-19 policy responses, the paper presents and combines the most recent data on poverty, gender, and the economy at the national level. The study finds that i) without any government mitigation measures, the gross domestic product will remain below business-as-usual levels; ii) poorer women are hardest hit because they are employed in sectors that are exposed and vulnerable to COVID-19 response measures; and iii) mitigation measures to counteract the negative effects of increases in poverty are effective only in the short term, and additional measures to sustain poverty reduction for the long term to sustain the poverty reductions are required. These results highlight the short-term versus long-term dilemma the government faces when contemplating responses to COVID-19.
