Land use/cover changes and prediction of Dodoma, Tanzania

Abstract

The primary objective of this paper is to analyze the past and present changes of Dodoma region and also predict the future changes using the Landsat satellite images of 1998, 2008 and 2018. In this study, land use and land cover change (LULC) is examined using remote sensing and Markov chains analysis. The study first uses remote sensing to detect LULC changes and then based on the result of classification images, predicts the 2030 LULC using Markov chains analysis. The results of the net change between 1998 and 2018 show that built-up land increased by 2221 ha, bare land by 15,737 ha and vegetation declined by 17,958 ha. Markov prediction to 2030 based on land use and land cover maps of 2008 and 2018 show that bare land has a high probability (0.61) of maintaining its current status in 2030. However, vegetation only has a probability of 0.41 for maintaining its current state, and it could convert to bare land at a probability of 0.43 and to built-up land at a probability of 0.015. The transition probabilities illustrate that most of the LULC are oriented towards the increase of the bare land and built-up land.